Discussion List for campus-based and allied personnel working to end gender-based violence on campus.

[John Foubert <>]

This is another perspective on the Swartout et al. study.  In my opinion, Swartout and his many esteemed colleagues conducted a very useful study that we can all learn a lot from.  What is below is a statement from the authors of that study that has been posted elsewhere.

“Hopper, Lisak, and Tracy have raised concerns about the Swartout et al. (2015) article that challenges the serial rape perspective on college men who perpetrate persistently across their enrollment in higher education.  The paper has been re-reviewed by JAMA statistical consultants and editors.  At their direction, we have thoroughly reviewed all of the data analyses, as well as conducted an additional analysis that was requested.  The outcome was an editorial decision that the paper is sound, requires no changes, reaches conclusions supported by the data, and that the implications stand as published. Accordingly, JAMA declined to publish the comments of Hopper et al. We look forward to continuing our studies, future work by other scientists, and collaborating to apply the findings to policy and practice”.

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On Tue, Jan 19, 2016 at 12:29 PM, Caramagno, Denise <> wrote:

I wonder if there has been any conversation about this study that finds serial college rapists constitute a significant minority. 

 

Regards,

 

Denise 

 

 

Denise Caramagno, M.A., M.A.

Confidential CARE Advocate

Director

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Office of Diversity and Outreach

University of California at San Francisco

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From: Kimberg, Leigh
Sent: Monday, January 18, 2016 3:44 PM
To: Shafia Zaloom; Kandel, Minouche (WOM); Caramagno, Denise; Keller, Debra; Boccellari, Alicia (DPH); Takao, Carol; Gladwin, Katherine; Garcia-Grossman, Ilana; Illangasekare, Tushani; Park, Olivia; Harvill, Kara; Kokroko, Jolene
Subject: Swartout 2015 reference from my EndNote library please distribute to others

 

Swartout, K. M., et al. (2015). "TRajectory analysis of the campus serial rapist assumption." JAMA Pediatr 169(12): 1148-1154.

            Importance  Rape on college campuses has been addressed recently by a presidential proclamation, federal legislation, advocacy groups, and popular media. Many initiatives assume that most college men who perpetrate rape are serial rapists. The scientific foundation for this perspective is surprisingly limited.Objective  To determine whether a group of serial rapists exists by identifying cohesive groups of young men, indicated by their trajectories of rape likelihood across high school and college.Design, Setting, and Participants  Latent class growth analysis of the 2 largest longitudinal data sets of adolescent sexual violence on college campuses using 2 distinct groups of male college students. The first group was used for derivation modeling (n = 847; data collected from August 1990 through April 1995) and the second for validation modeling (n = 795; data collected from March 2008 through May 2011). Final data analyses were conducted from February 16, 2015, through February 20, 2015.Main Outcomes and Measures  Rape perpetration assessed using the Sexual Experiences Survey.Results  Across samples, 178 of 1642 participants (10.8%) reported having perpetrated at least 1 rape from 14 years of age through the end of college. A 3-trajectory model best fit both the derivation and validation data sets. Trajectories reflected low or time-limited (92.6% of participants), decreasing (5.3%), and increasing (2.1%) rape patterns. No consistently high trajectory was found. Most men who perpetrated a rape before college were classified in the decreasing trajectory. During college, the increasing trajectory included 14 men (15.2%) who reported having perpetrated a rape, the decreasing trajectory included 30 men (32.6%), and the low or time-limited included 48 men (52.2%). No participant in the low or time-limited trajectory reported perpetrating a rape during more than 1 period. Most men (67 [72.8%]) who committed college rape only perpetrated rape during 1 academic year.Conclusions and Relevance  Although a small group of men perpetrated rape across multiple college years, they constituted a significant minority of those who committed college rape and did not compose the group at highest risk of perpetrating rape when entering college. Exclusive emphasis on serial predation to guide risk identification, judicial response, and rape-prevention programs is misguided. To deter college rape, prevention should be initiated before, and continue during, college. Child and adolescent health care professionals are well positioned to intervene during the early teenage years by informing parents about the early onset of nonconsensual sexual behavior.